When Red Becomes Purple

Canvassing in any scenario is uncomfortable. Canvassing for a Democratic candidate in a historically Republican district is panic-attack-inducing. But in any campaign, it’s a necessary component. So when my partner and I began volunteering for the Douglas County portion of Jason Crow’s congressional campaign in Colorado’s 6th district (CO-6), it seemed like a daunting but worthy challenge. Given the chaotic state of our democracy, a little more is required of average Americans. We are called to endure the occasional door slam to find the few individuals who remain undecided, who aren’t sure where to vote, who need a little extra motivation to even vote at all. We are called to tolerate the surly “leave me alone”’s to ensure that the voice of every citizen is heard in our society.

These efforts were particularly necessary in the region that we were assigned by the Crow campaign. In the three previous House races in Douglas County, Democrats have won exactly zero precincts and lost by an average of more than 26 percentage points. With this level of incumbency advantage, we had our work cut out for us, but other indicators left a whiff of possibility in the air. Unprecedented individual contribution levels of Democrats across the country (including this one) provided a significant advantage and could have suggested a grass roots mobilization of previously silent Democrats across the country. Midterm elections are always difficult for the party controlling the White House, and with the considerable unpopularity of President Trump, the fact that the Republican incumbent Mike Coffman voted with Trump 96% of the time was a major selling point to independent voters. And having a moderate candidate with a military background as an Army Ranger and a progressive stance on gun violence in a region deeply effected by several tragic shootings in recent years would definitely make a difference. So in the days leading up to the election, when Jason Crow’s aides would jokingly ask “you gonna win us DougCo?”, I understood the sarcasm but confidently replied, “we’ll win a few precincts for sure.”

As results came pouring in, this prediction turned out to be an understatement. Jason Crow went on to take thirteen precincts in Douglas County and only lost the county by six percentage points. Losing in any fashion may not sound like an uplifting fact, but the 22.0% jump from losing by 27.9% in 2016 to only 5.9% in 2018 is the largest gain out of all the counties in the district (Adams: 16.4%, Arapahoe: 19.8%).

Recent House Races in the DougCo Portion of CO-6

So what happened to Douglas County voters? Why the sudden purple hue? Races further down the ballot give us some insight into why the citizens of Douglas County voted the way they did, and we see that these results don’t quite fit the “blue wave” narrative that everyone is so fond of using. Across the board, Democrats did get a bump compared to previous years because of all the factors listed above, but some of that advantage disappears down the ballot. The higher profile races with national implications, i.e. the House and Governor’s races, only had a Republican edge of 5.9% while the race for Attorney General ballooned up to 13.5%. This could suggest that voters wanted to rebuke the White House while keeping local government conservative.

Races Down the Ballot in the DougCo Portion of CO-6

So if the suburbs were what handed Democrats the House in 2018, the Douglas County portion of CO-6 should be exhibit A. Obviously, part of Jason Crow’s success in this area was regression to the mean – it was already so red that there was really nowhere to go but up – but it even stands out when comparing apples to apples. Out of the the top ten districts most similar to CO-6 according to FiveThirtyEight’s similarity metrics, three were held by a Republican before the midterms. All three seats flipped to Democrats, but in terms of gain in vote margin, CO-6 just barely finishes second to Kansas’s 3rd district (KS-3) by only 0.3%. In fact, the comparison between Jason Crow’s victory and Sharice Davids’ victory in KS-3 is actually rather fitting. In the primaries, Davids’ defeated a Bernie-Sanders-endorsed candidate to move on to the general election, possibly suggesting a desire for moderate candidates in KS-3 similar to CO-6. And while the storyline of a gay Native American MMA-fighter candidate will generate more national attention than yet another white male running for congress, the energy levels behind both campaigns in historically red districts seem reminiscent of each other. Both benefitted from early grass roots organizing by neighborhood volunteers refusing to accept the status quo.

Demographically, Geographically, and Politically Similar Districts to CO-6

Two and a half weeks of door-knocking, organizing, and getting out the vote felt far more like two and a half months. It would normally be difficult to imagine how people would have survived the entire campaign, but the energy and passion for change of the volunteers that came to make a difference had to have something to do with it. There’s no way you make it through an entire campaign without neighborhood leaders like Darien and Kathy, without expert phone-bankers like Connie, without unstoppable doorknockers like Brian and Sam, and without energy boosts from seasoned campaign veterans like my partner, Ashley (of course I was going to shamelessly brag about my wife at some point during this article). Jason Crow and his team ran a hell of a campaign, but if there’s anyone to credit with this win, it’s the citizens of Colorado’s 6th district that gave their time, sweat, and effort to the idea that change can materialize anywhere. More than anything, that is what it takes to turn red into purple.

All election results presented here are unofficial as of November 23rd, 2018 and a spreadsheet containing all relevant data is available here on my GitHub page.